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Author Topic: When will it stop  (Read 1841 times)
bluefin
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« on: October 11, 2005, 07:07:51 am »
i am really worrie about the H5N1 virus
previously found in the intestines of birds it has somehow got transfered to human beings as well
there were cases of first deaths in indonesia and the virus spread to hong knong, russia , vietnam, cambodia etc
i mean when will this stop or do we brace oursleves for another outbreak and global pandemic
these things are driving me wild
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tiadesai
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« Reply #1 on: October 13, 2005, 12:31:07 am »
well
the governmnets of affected countries are trying their best by ordering vaccine and flu shots
hopefully a vaccine will be invented soon
i know if it is not kept under control it will become another global pandemic
it has spread to many countires around the world and people are getting a lot concerned about their safety and well being
you can find more information on bird flu at http://www.drugdelivery.ca/bird-flu.aspx
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mutex
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« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2005, 07:39:02 pm »
Most likely, this will end up being a pandemic in the next few years. 
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Jerry

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« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2005, 09:30:52 pm »
Quote from: mutex on October 15, 2005, 07:39:02 pm
Most likely, this will end up being a pandemic in the next few years. 

I agree with this. I'm quite a big reader of scientific magazines such as "New Scientist", "Scientific American" blah blah blah. And there has been quite a bit of publicity lately about H5N1 and its comparision to the 1918 Flu Virus. There is an interesting article if anyone is interested on page 16, of New Scientist in last weeks edition (8-14th October). I'll quote a few sentences:

"The genetic sequences of the reconstructed 1918 virus show that it was a pure bird flu that adpated to humans, not a hybrid between a bird flu and a human flu like the relatively mild flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968. This is particularly worrying because H5N1 bird flu is steadily evolving to become more lethal in mammals without combining with a human flu."

They constructed a virus, similar to H5N1 but after parallel evolution with 1918 Virus. "When administered the reconstructed viruses to mice, the animals died with three days - more quickly than from any other flu virus ever tested"
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mutex
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« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2005, 09:35:58 pm »
The only good news in all of this is that the more quickly viruses kill, the more contained they tend to be.  Something that moves so quickly has a high likelihood of burning itself out.  Althought, it won't be before it kills tens or hundreds of thousands of people.  Almost certainly, it's going to start in some place like eastern europe or central asia, and it'll be quite bad there.  But, depending on it's efficacy, it may not actually be that bad - by all estimations, something like ebola should have wiped out the population by now, but it kills its victims too quickly.

Wash your hands often.  That's the best protection against the flu.  Always has been, always will be.
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Jerry

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Leritzi
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« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2005, 09:59:08 pm »
That was my thinking as well. It's not really how quickly the disease kills a person, but it is how many people who actually catch it die. For example "The 1918 flu infected virtually everyone on the planet within a year of its appearance. It made about a third of them sick, 3 per cent of whom died" So if a virus comes along which kills everyone whom catches it, and as it takes time for them to die, the virus would spread very quickly and would kill alot of people.
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summer
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2005, 10:20:42 am »
It sounds like it's starting to get worse in Asia and eastern europe.  How long before it gets to the US?
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where_is_god_now?
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2005, 10:22:04 am »
My guess is by spring at the latest.
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mutex
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« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2005, 10:22:59 am »
I'll agree with that.  I keep expecting to see the story everytime I turn on the news.
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Jerry

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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2005, 02:22:25 am »
If anyone is interested, there is a site made by "New Scientist" magazine about the Bird Flu, which i find quite stimulating. http://www.newscientist.com/channel/health/bird-flu
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