Next gen dvd prediction

[mutex]

I predict in 10 years we will be lamenting about how we were stuck with the crappy HD-DVD while the blue-ray was superior.

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8C5FV180.htm?campaign_id=apn_home_down&chan=db

[where_is_god_now?]

sounds like a safe prediction

[Leritzi]

I don't agree with your prediction. SOny and Toshiba don't agree on a standard format, but I think it will be the more superior proudct that will come out in the end. "japanese electronics giants have announced they will go ahead with their own formats for next generation DVDs."- new scientist. Both products will be produced no matter what, with Sony releasing the PS3 with blu-ray and toshiba releasing HD-DVD, they will both with produced parallel. So you cannot say that we will get stuck with one format.

[mutex]

That is true, but historically, the market has only accepted one standard, and it has almost never been the superior product that became the standard.  The problem with Sony is that they tend to encumber their standards with patent restrictions and copy protections, ala betamax, minidisc, memorystick, DUO, and universal media disc.
I haven't checked to see if blu-ray is in the same boat, but the track record is there, so I would be suprised if it turned out differently.

[mutex]

I should point out, though, that the multi-channel audio standard that is used (5.1, etc) is a sony standard.

[Leritzi]

..stuck with the crappy HD-DVD...

Quoting what you said above, you can't say that we'll be stuck with HD-DVD, as with all nearly all the other sony products that you mentioned above, they've still be availiable. FOr example Mini-Disc, i've been a big fan of minidisc for a long time. Even though it hasn't been huge, it has still been a viable superior product to CDs and even MP3 players up to a point, even if the prices are high.

So what I'm saying, if people want the superior product they will dip deeper into their pockets and purchase the superior product. Even if it isn't standard, but they will be seeking a greater level of cinematic experience. Or maybe they just want to fit more arhhh "movies" onto one disc.

Sony will always be for high-end users, as they will always be priced more expensive than others. But because of this often you get a more superior product. Thats sony-- they have style.

[mutex]

What you say is true, but the problem I see is that we will likely not have the option of buy movies on both formats.  Historically, we get one.  Minidiscs are an exception, but at least here in the US, they are pretty hard to find.

[Leritzi]

What you say is true, but the problem I see is that we will likely not have the option of buy movies on both formats.  Historically, we get one.  Minidiscs are an exception, but at least here in the US, they are pretty hard to find.

Yeah I'd have to agree here, all the pre-recorded minidisc are from Sony Studios. So there isn't much of a range. But it is promising to see a large amount of movies on Sony specific discs for psp.

[mutex]

Are they primarily Sony movies?

[Leritzi]

No, not just sony movies. E.g.

Twentieth Century Fox Home Entertainment and Pathé Distribution Ltd are releasing a range of high-octane blockbuster films on UMD (Universal Media Disc) from 5th September 2005. Alien Vs Predator, I, Robot, The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen, Alien, Resident Evil, House of Flying Daggers and Dodgeball will be available for (RRP) £19.99 each to enjoy on your PSP whenever and wherever the urge takes you!

http://www.scifind.co.uk/news/news-news136.html

[Leritzi]

And look at this: http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/sep2005/id20050914_100626.htm

Benjamin Feingold, president of Sony Pictures Home Entertainment (SPHE), made the prediction that within a year HD DVD would have no choice but to surrender, largely thanks to the inclusion of Blu-ray players in every PlayStation 3.
"I think in 12 months it's all going to be clear: the combination of Blu-ray and PlayStation 3 machines is going to overwhelm any HD DVD presence and all studios will have to support Blu-ray,"

But then he would say that he's from sony

[Leritzi]

This is interesting: http://www.pcpro.co.uk/news/77862/toshiba-completes-dual-layer-hd-dvd-recording-spec.html

"Dual layer discs will double the maximum recordable capacity of the format to 30GB, more than the 25GB currently provided by the rival Blu-ray format, although that may increase before the first drives become commercially available."

I'm still a big blu-ray fan, because I'm a loyal Sony supporter but what is your opinion on blu-ray still being superior?

[mutex]

I think the competition is going to continue, so I wouldn't expect this to be the last word.

[RandomBoy]

i think we should wonder what is that they'll do with such an obscene capacity (30 gb!!) for a single movie... i think the aim is not being able to store more and more minutes in a dvd (or any digital disc that should reign in the future), that wouldn't be accountable for the industry...
on the other hand, it seems to me that the dvd video quality is amazing and that future improvements won't be impressive if the display stays the same: a single monitor...
maybe the way to go in order to improve the "presence" that a user can feel with the media is precisely making the revolution in the communication device...
i think about helmets, smell and temperature emulators... that content would probably need more storage room (GBs); just then investing in "bigger" discs would make sense   

[mutex]

Certainly, the higher video quality will require more capacity for the same amount of video, right out of the gate.  But, I don't think it's necessarily going to require as much as HD and blue-ray provide, so hopefully, we'll finally get to use the "perspective" button on our future dvd players - where there are different camera angles, etc. that we can shoose from.  That wasn't really possible with current dvd's because the average feature length movie was pretty close to the capacity of the dvd.

Then again, more and more crap is being loaded on to the dvds of today, like computer games, useless commentary, etc.

I am really hoping for a few orders of magnitude increase sometime soon, because dvd media is a really good media for backups, be even at 30GB, I'd have to use about 15 of them to backup my computer.